Évaluation de l'incertitude liée à la modélisation hydraulique au sein d'un système de prévision d'ensemble des niveaux d'eau

Authors: Bessar, Mohammed Amine
Advisor: Anctil, François; Matte, Pascal
Abstract: Floods are a major threat to human and infrastructure security. The impacts of these natural hazards are likely to increase further with climate change trends. It is therefore important to develop reliable flood forecasting and mitigation tools to help reduce their devastating consequences. The implementation of these tools involves quite complex physical processes and requires a lot of data with all the associated uncertainty. In this thesis, we explore and evaluate the different sources of uncertainty related to the determination of water levels in rivers mainly in a forecasting context where the uncertainty related to forcing data is very important. The analysis carried out is applied to the Chaudière River in Quebec. First, we explored the various parametric sources of uncertainty associated with hydraulic modelling in a simulation context with a focus on improving the calibration of the hydraulic model. Then, in an operational forecasting context, we evaluated the propagation of uncertainty sources from climate forecast to the river model through hydrological forecasting using ensemble driven techniques. Quantification of uncertainty showed that forcing data contribute the most to the description of uncertainty in water level determination and the parametric uncertainty, in a forecasting context, is very negligible. The adoption of ensemble forecasts allowed us to provide reliable water level forecasts and showed that they are highly dependent on the quality of the data produced by the hydrometeorological forecast chain upstream of the proposed forecasting system.
Document Type: Thèse de doctorat
Issue Date: 2021
Open Access Date: 25 October 2021
Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/70728
Grantor: Université Laval
Collection:Thèses et mémoires

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