Can gamblers beat randomness? : an experimental study on sport betting

Authors: Cantinotti, Michael
Advisor: Ladouceur, Robert
Abstract: Although skills are not considered relevant in chance governed activities, only few studies have assessed to which extent sport expert skills in wagering are a manifestation of the illusion of control. Thus, the present paper examines: (1) if expert hockey bettors can make better predictions than random selection, (2) if expert hockey bettors can achieve greater monetary gains than what can be expected from chance, and (3) what kind of information and strategies hockey gamblers rely on when betting. Accordingly, 30 participants were asked to report their state lottery hockey bets on 6 occasions. They also filled in a questionnaire on sports wagering. Despite a rate accuracy greater than chance, the monetary gains of expert hockey gamblers are not significantly higher than what can be expected by chance. It is suggested that the information used by bettors, along with near-misses (level of precision), reinforce their perception of expertise and their illusion of control
Document Type: Mémoire de maîtrise
Issue Date: 2002
Open Access Date: 13 September 2020
Grantor: Université Laval
Collection:Thèses et mémoires

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