Impact of economic conditions and marriage market on inmates' recidivism : a longitudinal analysis

Authors: Arbour, William
Advisor: Lacroix, GuyBoucher, Vincent
Abstract: In this thesis, we study Quebec male prison population with a special focus on recidivism. We are especially interested in quantifying the impact of regional economic variables on the probability of recidivism and the number of reoffenses committed in a year. More precisely, we consider variations in regional unemployment rate, minimum wage and average disposable income. Moreover, we include in our analysis domestic predictors: being married or having a family. Since these two parameters are potentially endogenous with recidivism, we estimate bivariate probit regressions and Poisson regressions with regional sex ratios as instrumental variables. The data provided by the ministère de la Sécurité publique allows us to bring to light several results. We estimate that having a family decreases by 18% the likelihood of recidivism, while the effect marriage is not significant. No effect is found for the number of reoffenses committed, neither for being married or having a family. Finally, we find a significant positive correlation between regional wealth and recidivism, whereas we highlight that an increase in real minimum wage is associated with a decrease in recidivism.
Document Type: Mémoire de maîtrise
Issue Date: 2018
Open Access Date: 28 March 2019
Grantor: Université Laval
Collection:Thèses et mémoires

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