Évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques au choix des outils hydro-météorologiques globaux conceptuels : approche multimodèle

Authors: Seiller, Gregory
Advisor: Anctil, François
Abstract: Modeling climate change impacts on water resources remains one of the major challenges for the scientific community. This task is complex and contains numerous cumulated uncertainties all along the modeling process, from the greenhouse gas scenarios definition to the hydrological projections. All the modeling tools can thus potentially affect our ability to render a diagnosis of the impacts of climate changes on water resources. In this context, modeling uncertainty related to 20 lumped conceptual hydrological models, 24 potential evapotranspiration formulations, and 7 snow modules was evaluated on two catchments: au Saumon (Province of Quebec, Canada) and Schlehdorf (State of Bavaria, Germany). This work first assessed the transposability in time of the hydrological models and examined the interest of the multimodel approach in a climate change context. Then, contribution of the different tools to cumulated uncertainty is evaluated, followed by an investigation of individual sensitivity origins. This analysis was based on performance criteria, discharge graphical displays, statistics tools, and hydrological indicators of changes in water resources. More, uncertainties related to climatic members are also appraised on the Quebec catchment to allow a direct comparison with the principal studied tools. Results demonstrated that our capacity to render a diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources on the two studied catchments was highly connected to the choice of the hydro-meteorological lumped modeling tools. Each one contributed to the total uncertainty; however, with a larger prevalence for the potential evapotranspiration formulations and hydrological models, snow modules being more neutral. Nevertheless, comparative analysis showed that the selection of a climatic member was affecting the total uncertainty the most. This research proposed a detailed analysis on our capacity to realise a diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources for two studied catchments and provided a specific and original methodology directly applicable and adjustable to other hydro-climatic contexts.
Document Type: Thèse de doctorat
Issue Date: 2013
Open Access Date: 19 April 2018
Permalink: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11794/24394
Grantor: Université Laval
Collection:Thèses et mémoires

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