Analyse empirique des tendances des prix du marché de la pomme au Québec
|Advisor:||Lambert, Rémy; Pouliot, Sébastien|
|Abstract:||The apple industry in Quebec is under a price management system. The Fédération des producteurs de pommes du Québec (FPPQ) manages a marketing agreement that sets a minimum for the price paid to Quebec apple producers. The floor price is determined by a committee composed of members of the FPPQ, members of the Quebec apple packers association and one representative of Quebec fresh apples buyers. This study predicts the price paid to Quebec producers for four varieties of apples (Cortland–McIntosh– Spartan– Empire) grown in Quebec and sold fresh in Quebec and in so doing will assist the FPPQ in the determination of the minimum price. Specifically, the objective of this analysis is to develop an empirical model that explains the factors that influence the price paid to Quebec producers for fresh apples. This prediction tool will provide a precise prediction of prices therefore facilitating decision by members of the Quebec apple industry. The empirical model includes variables that affect both the demand for apple and the supply of apple. The model includes variables for the stock of apple, the quantity of apples marketed, the imports of apples, the exchange rate and the prices for the four varieties of apples. The empirical model is at the cutting edge of the literature on time series that are jointly determined. The empirical model in this analysis allows for a precise prediction of the price for the four varieties of apple taking into account that the price for one variety affects and is affected by the price for all the other varieties. This approach allows for more precise prediction than under conventional models that do not account for simultaneity. The results of the estimations how that the net imports of apple from the United States and the quantity of apples marketed are the two most important factors that affect the price of apples in Quebec. The model yields a precise prediction for a time horizon below three months.|
|Document Type:||Mémoire de maîtrise|
|Open Access Date:||18 April 2018|
|Collection:||Thèses et mémoires|
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