Personne :
Boucher, Vincent

En cours de chargement...
Photo de profil
Adresse électronique
Date de naissance
Projets de recherche
Structures organisationnelles
Fonction
Nom de famille
Boucher
Prénom
Vincent
Affiliation
Université Laval. Département d'économique
ISNI
ORCID
Identifiant Canadiana
ncf10251505
person.page.name

Résultats de recherche

Voici les éléments 1 - 10 sur 10
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    L'impact des dépenses publiques en sport sur les médailles olympiques: une analyse économétrique
    (Presses de Sciences Po, 2017-07-20) Fortin, Bernard; Blais-Morisset, Paul; Boucher, Vincent
    Chaque année, une part significative des dépenses gouvernementales est consacrée au sport de niveau professionnel ou amateur. Certains analystes affirment que ces investissements contribuent fortement au succès d’un pays aux Jeux olympiques (JO). Nous présentons une analyse économétrique du nombre de médailles obtenues aux JO. Nous introduisons l’investissement public en sport comme facteur potentiellement important du nombre de médailles remportées par un pays, en prenant soin de contrôler pour l’hétérogénéité inobservable des pays participants aux JO. Nous présentons, à notre connaissance, la première modélisation du succès olympique utilisant des spécifications de comptage (count data model) en panel estimées à l’aide de variables instrumentales et captant les caractéristiques individuelles et invariantes des nations. Selon les spécifications du modèle retenues, un pays aux caractéristiques moyennes aurait dû accroître son investissement de 72 à 94 millions de dollars, ceteris paribus, afin d’obtenir une médaille supplémentaire aux JO d’été de Londres en 2012.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Structural homophily
    (Philadelphia Economics Dept. of the University of Pennsylvania, 2015-01-23) Boucher, Vincent
    Homophily, or the fact that similar individuals tend to interact with each other, is a prominent feature of economic and social networks. I show that the equilibrium structure of homophily has empirical power. I build a strategic model of network formation, which produces a unique equilibrium network. Individuals have homophilic preferences and face capacity constraints on the number of links. I develop a novel empirical method, based on the shape of the equilibrium network, which allows for the identification and estimation of the underlying homophilic preferences. I apply this new methodology to the formation of friendship networks.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Polluting politics
    (North-Holland, 2015-11-07) Beland, Louis-Philippe; Boucher, Vincent
    This paper estimates the causal impact of Democratic vs Republican governors on pollution. Using a regression discontinuity design, gubernatorial election data, and air quality data from US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), we find that air pollution is lower under Democratic governors.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    My friend far far away : a random field approach to exponential random graph models
    (Blackwell Publishers, 2017-06-22) Boucher, Vincent; Mourifié, Ismael
    We explore the asymptotic properties of strategic models of network formation in very large populations. Specifically, we focus on (undirected) exponential random graph models. We want to recover a set of parameters from the individuals' utility functions using the observation of a single, but large, social network. We show that, under some conditions, a simple logit‐based estimator is coherent, consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under a weak version of homophily. The approach is compelling as the computing time is minimal and the estimator can be easily implemented using pre‐programmed estimators available in most statistical packages. We provide an application of our method using the Add Health database.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Selecting equilibria using best-response dynamics
    (Université Laval, 2017-09-08) Boucher, Vincent
    I propose a simple simulation procedure for large games with multiple equilibria. The simulation procedure is based on a best-response dynamic. The implied equilibrium selection mechanism is intuitive: more stable equilibria are selected with higher probability.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Do peers affect student achievement? : evidence from Canada using group size variation
    (Wiley, 2012-08-30) Bramoullé, Yann; Fortin, Bernard; Djebbari, Habiba; Boucher, Vincent
    We provide the first empirical application of a new approach proposed by Lee (Journal of Econometrics 2007; 140(2), 333–374) to estimate peer effects in a linear‐in‐means model when individuals interact in groups. Assumingsufficient group size variation, this approach allows to control for correlated effects at the group level and to solve the simultaneity (reflection) problem. We clarify the intuition behind identification of peer effects in the model. We investigate peer effects in student achievement in French, Science, Mathematics and History in secondary schools in the Province of Québec (Canada). We estimate the model using conditional maximum likelihood and instrumental variables methods. We find some evidence of peer effects. The endogenous peer effect is large and significant in Mathematics but imprecisely estimated in the other subjects. Some contextual peer effects are also significant. In particular, for most subjects, the average age of peers has a negative effect on own test score. Using calibrated Monte Carlo simulations, we find that high dispersion in group sizes helps with potential issues of weak identification. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Conformism and self-selection in social networks
    (Elsevier Science, 2016-03-07) Boucher, Vincent
    I present a model of conformism in social networks that incorporates both peer effects and self-selection. I show that conformism has positive social value and that social welfare can be bounded by network polarization and connectivity measures. I apply the model to empirical data on high school students’ participation in extracurricular activities. I find that the local effect of conformism (i.e. the endogenous peer effect for a fixed network structure) ranges from 7.5% to 45%, depending on the number of peers that an individual has. Simulations show that the optimal policies of an inequality-averse policymaker change depending on a school’s enrollment. Small schools should encourage shy students to interact more with other students, while large schools should focus on promoting role models within the school.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Accords internationaux en environnement : effet de l'incertitude, effet de l'altruisme
    (2008) Boucher, Vincent; Bramoullé, Yann
    Nous introduisons deux extensions à un modèle de formation d'accords internationaux en environnement. Nous utilisons un modèle simple avec des agents identiques et des paiements linéaires. Dans la première extension, nous introduisons de l'incertitude et de l'aversion au risque. Nous montrons qu'il existe toujours un traité stable avec action strictement positive. Si l'incertitude diminue l'action des signataires, nous montrons néanmoins qu'elle peut augmenter la participation. De plus, l'incertitude peut générer des équilibres multiples. Un traité avec un niveau de participation élevée et action élevée ainsi qu'un traité avec participation faible et action faible peuvent émerger. Au final, malgré l'aversion au risque, l'impact de l'incertitude sur le bien-être peut être positive. Une réduction de l'incertitude peut être néfaste à la coopération internationale. Dans la deuxième extension, nous introduisons des préférences altruistes. Nous montrons que pour des niveaux d'altruisme modérés, l'altruisme a un effet négatif sur le bien-être. L'altruisme a un effet positif sur l'effort des signataires, mais négatif sur le niveau de participation. Pour les deux extensions, l'effet sur la participation tend à être plus important que l'effet sur l'effort des signataires.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Providing global public goods under uncertainty
    (North Holland Pub. Co., 2010-06-15) Bramoullé, Yann; Boucher, Vincent
    We study how uncertainty and risk aversion affect international agreements to supply global public goods. We consider a benchmark model with homogeneous countries and linear payoffs. When countries directly contribute to a public good, uncertainty tends to lower signatories' efforts but may increase participation. Despite risk aversion, uncertainty may improve welfare. In contrast, when countries try to reduce a global public bad, uncertainty tends to increase signatories' efforts and decrease participation. In that case, an ex-ante reduction of uncertainty may have a large positive multiplier effect on welfare.
  • Publication
    Accès libre
    Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio : economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker
    (Copernicus GmbH, 2017-06-19) Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles; Boucher, Vincent
    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost–loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts’ uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles, and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of state variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in southern central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of 1 to 5 days, both in terms of forecasts’ quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution. Hence, post-processing forecasts to avoid overforecasting could help improve both the quality and the value of forecasts.