Personne : Bouchard, Mathieu
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Bouchard
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Mathieu
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Université Laval. Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt
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ncf10804159
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Publication Restreint On the risk of systematic drift under incoherent hierarchical forest management planning(National Research Council Canada, 2013-02-23) Bouchard, Mathieu; Paradis, Gregory; D'Amours, Sophie; LeBel, LucIn theory, linkages between hierarchical forest management planning levels ensure coherent disaggregation of long-term wood supply allocation as input for short-term demand-driven harvest planning. In practice, these linkages may be ineffective, and solutions produced may be incoherent in terms of volume and value-creation potential of harvested timber. Systematic incoherence between planned and implemented forest management activities may induce drift of forest system state (i.e., divergence of planned and actual system state trajectories), thus compromising credibility and performance of the forest management planning process. We describe hierarchical forest management from a game-theoretic perspective and present an iterative two-phase model simulating interaction between long- and short-term planning processes. Using an illustrative case study, we confirm the existence of a systematic drift effect, which we attribute to ineffective linkages between long- and short-term planning. In several simulated scenarios, the planning process fails to ensure long-term wood supply sustainability, fails to reliably meet industrial fiber demand over time, and exacerbates incoherence between wood supply and fiber demand over several planning iterations. We show that manipulating linkages between long- and short-term planning processes can reduce incoherence and describe future work on game-theoretic planning process model formulations that may improve hierarchical planning process performance.Publication Restreint A bi-level model formulation for the distributed wood supply planning problem(National Research Council of Canada, 2017-10-31) Bouchard, Mathieu; Paradis, Gregory; D'Amours, Sophie; LeBel, LucThe classic wood supply optimisation model maximises even-flow harvest levels and implicitly assumes infinite fibre demand. In many jurisdictions, this modelling assumption is a poor fit for actual fibre consumption, which is typically a subset of total fibre allocation. Failure of the model to anticipate this bias in industrial wood fibre consumption has been linked to increased risk of wood supply failure. In particular, we examine the distributed wood supply planning problem where the roles of forest owner and fibre consumer are played by independent agents. We use game theory to frame interactions between public forest land managers and industrial fibre consumers. We show that the distributed wood supply planning problem can be modelled more accurately using a bi-level formulation and present an extension of the classic wood supply optimisation model that explicitly anticipates industrial fibre consumption behaviour. We present a solution methodology that can solve a convex special case of the problem to global optimality and compare output and solution times of classic and bi-level model formulations using a computational experiment on a realistic dataset. Experimental results show that the bi-level formulation can mitigate risk of wood supply failure.